DDI_WLD_2008_ISS_v02_M 2011-02-10 NADA DDI Document - Version 02 - (04/21/21) This version is identical to DDI_WLD_2008_ISS_v01_M but country field has been updated to capture all the countries covered by survey. Version 01 (February 2011) Intensification of Storm Surges 2008 ISS 2008 WLD_2008_ISS_v01_M Susmita Dasgupta, David R. Wheeler, Siobhan Murray and Benoit Laplante NADA Development Research Group This research was carried out by the World Bank in 2008. Financial support for this research was provided by the Research Department of the World Bank, and the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study administered by the Environment Department of the World Bank. Funding for the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study has been provided by the governments of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Switzerland. An increase in sea surface temperature is strongly evident at all latitudes and in all oceans. The scientific evidence to date indicates that increased sea surface temperature will intensify cyclone activity and heighten storm surges. These surges will, in turn, create more damaging flood conditions in coastal zones and adjoining low-lying areas. The destructive impact will generally be greater when storm surges are accompanied by strong winds and large onshore waves. In this research, we have considered the potential impact of a large (1-in-100-year) storm surge by contemporary standards, and then compared it with its 10% intensification which is expected to occur in this century. In modeling the future climate, we took account of changes in sea level rise, geological uplift and subsidence along the world’s coastlines. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (Area, population, economic activity (GDP), agricultural land, urban areas, and wetlands), with the inundation zones projected for 84 coastal developing countries. Angola United Arab Emirates Argentina Benin Bahamas, The Brazil Chile China Cameroon Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Djibouti Dominican Republic Algeria Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. Western Sahara Gabon Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Equatorial Guinea Guatemala French Guiana Guyana Honduras Haiti Indonesia India Iran, Islamic Rep. Jamaica Kenya Cambodia Kuwait Liberia Libya Sri Lanka Morocco Madagascar Mexico Myanmar Mozambique Mauritania Malaysia Namibia Nigeria Nicaragua Oman Pakistan Panama Peru Philippines Papua New Guinea Puerto Rico Korea, Dem. Rep. Qatar Saudi Arabia Sudan Senegal Sierra Leone El Salvador Somalia Sao Tome and Principe Suriname Togo Thailand Tunisia Taiwan, China Tanzania Uruguay Venezuela, RB Vietnam South Africa Aggregate data [agg] The datasets include area, population, economic activity (GDP), agricultural land, urban areas, and wetlands. Other [oth] Limitations of the research: 1. The relative likelihoods of alternative storm surge scenarios have not been assessed in this research. Following Nicholls et al (2007), a homogeneous future increase of 10% in extreme water levels during tropical storms is assumed. In all likelihood, regions of the world may experience a smaller increase and others a larger increase. Better local modeling of the impact of climate change on storm intensities (with the support of hurricane generator models) is needed to better forecast changes in storm surges. 2. Among the 84 developing countries included in this analysis, our estimation is restricted to coastal segments where historical storm surges have been documented. 3. The absence of a global database on shoreline protection has prevented us from incorporating the effect of existing protection measures (e.g., sea dikes) on exposure estimates. 4. Lack of spatially disaggregated secondary information on indicators prevented us from including small islands in this analysis. 5. The impacts of intensification of storm surges and SLR have been assessed using existing population, socio-economic conditions and patterns of land use, rather than attempting to predict their future states. Human activity is generally increasing more rapidly in coastal areas and thus the impacts of storm surges will be more pronounced in these areas. This effect is countered by adaptation measures (e.g., sea dikes), which we also do not attempt to estimate in this exercise. Adaptation measures from the purely technological (e.g., coastal embankments), to coastal-zone management (e.g., land-use planning, regulations, relocation) are often context, location and community-specific. Thus in our analysis, we refrain from generalizing any adaptive measures across our sub-set of developing countries. Use of the dataset must be acknowledged using a citation which would include: - the Identification of the Primary Investigator - the title of the survey (including acronym and year of implementation) - the survey reference number - the source and date of download Example: Susmita Dasgupta et al., World Bank. Intensification of Storm Surges (ISS) 2008. Ref. WLD_2008_ISS_v01_M. Dataset downloaded from http://microdata.worldbank.org on [date]. The user of the data acknowledges that the original collector of the data, the authorized distributor of the data, and the relevant funding agency bear no responsibility for use of the data or for interpretations or inferences based upon such uses. Ag Area 90 10 Area 90 10 GDP 90 10 Population 90 10 Urban area 90 10 Wetlands 90 10 Country name Country name Country name Country name Country name 90 Algeria Angola Argentina Bahamas Bangladesh Belize Benin Brazil Brunei Cambodia Cameroon Chile China Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Cuba DPR Korea Djibouti Dominican Republic East Asia and Pacific Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea French Guiana Gabon Ghana Global Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Iran Jamaica Kenya Korea Kuwait Latin America and the Caribbean Liberia Libya Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mexico Middle East and North Africa Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nicaragua Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Puerto Rico Qatar Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Asia Sri Lanka Sub-Saharan Africa Sudan Suriname Taiwan Tanzania Thailand The Gambia Togo Tunisia UAE Uruguay Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline length of coastline from DIVA database (km) 90 44.211 269596 8986.53 32040.593 coastal zone defined as elevation < 10 m Total country area (km2) Total country area (km2) Total country area (km2) Total country area (km2) Total country area (km2) total area (km²) 90 1047 63838523 2127950.767 7376456.33 Area of coastal zone (km2) Area of coastal zone (km2) Area of coastal zone (km2) Area of coastal zone (km2) Area of coastal zone (km2) area of coastal zone (km²) 90 45 2012753 67091.767 237371.285 Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) area of z2 (km²) 90 18 391812 13060.4 45676.651 Increment with climate change Increment with climate change Increment with climate change Increment with climate change Increment with climate change area of z1 (km²) 90 2 125443 4181.433 14602.696 z1 is extension of surge zone given climate change factors (z1 +z 2 would be surge zone with climate change); includes inland water (rivers, lakes) Surge zone with climate change Surge zone with climate change Surge zone with climate change Surge zone with climate change Surge zone with climate change 90 20 517255 17241.833 60266.811 z2 is current surge zone; includes inland water (rivers, lakes) AREAZ2 over AREACOAST AREAZ2 over AREACOAST AREAZ2 over AREACOAST AREAZ2 over AREACOAST AREAZ2 over AREACOAST 90 2.5 76.5 24.967 12.391 AREAZ1+Z2 over AREACOAST AREAZ1+Z2 over AREACOAST AREAZ1+Z2 over AREACOAST AREAZ1+Z2 over AREACOAST AREAZ1+Z2 over AREACOAST 90 3.3 81.1 32.484 13.797 % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC 90 6 102.3 34.47 15.465 (AREAZ1/AREAZ2)*100 Country name Country name Country name Country name Country name 90 Algeria Angola Argentina Bahamas Bangladesh Belize Benin Brazil Brunei Cambodia Cameroon Chile China Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Cuba DPR Korea Djibouti Dominican Republic East Asia and Pacific Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea French Guiana Gabon Ghana Global Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Iran Jamaica Kenya Korea Kuwait Latin America and the Caribbean Liberia Libya Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mexico Middle East and North Africa Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nicaragua Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Puerto Rico Qatar Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Asia Sri Lanka Sub-Saharan Africa Sudan Suriname Taiwan Tanzania Thailand The Gambia Togo Tunisia UAE Uruguay Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline length of coastline from DIVA database (km) 90 44.211 269596 8986.53 32040.593 coastal zone defined as elevation < 10 m Total country population Total country population Total country population Total country population Total country population total population from GRUMP 2005 90 152622 4761957402 158731913.4 581872519.455 Total coastal population Total coastal population Total coastal population Total coastal population Total coastal population population in coastal zone from GRUMP 2005 90 9361 707891627 23596387.567 89026118.158 Population exposed to current storm surges Population exposed to current storm surges Population exposed to current storm surges Population exposed to current storm surges Population exposed to current storm surges population in z2 from GRUMP 2005 90 2997 122066082 4068869.4 15060664.699 Increment in exposed population Increment in exposed population Increment in exposed population Increment in exposed population Increment in exposed population population in z1 from GRUMP 2005 90 892 52007481 1733582.7 6487786.278 Population exposed to storm surges with climate change Population exposed to storm surges with climate change Population exposed to storm surges with climate change Population exposed to storm surges with climate change Population exposed to storm surges with climate change 90 3954 174073563 5802452.1 21538910.862 GRZ2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ2 OVER GRCOAST 90 1.8 64.1 26.719 11.798 GRZ1+Z2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ1+Z2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ1+Z2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ1+Z2 OVER GRCOAST GRZ1+Z2 OVER GRCOAST 90 2.4 73 35.341 13.417 % increase in population exposed with CC % increase in population exposed with CC % increase in population exposed with CC % increase in population exposed with CC % increase in population exposed with CC 90 9 111.1 36.638 17.975 (GRZ1/GRZ2)*100 Country name Country name Country name Country name Country name 90 Algeria Angola Argentina Bahamas Bangladesh Belize Benin Brazil Brunei Cambodia Cameroon Chile China Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Cuba DPR Korea Djibouti Dominican Republic East Asia and Pacific Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea French Guiana Gabon Ghana Global Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Iran Jamaica Kenya Korea Kuwait Latin America and the Caribbean Liberia Libya Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mexico Middle East and North Africa Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nicaragua Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Puerto Rico Qatar Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Asia Sri Lanka Sub-Saharan Africa Sudan Suriname Taiwan Tanzania Thailand The Gambia Togo Tunisia UAE Uruguay Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline length of coastline from DIVA database (km) 90 44.211 269596 8986.53 32040.593 coastal zone defined as elevation < 10 m GDP of the country GDP of the country GDP of the country GDP of the country GDP of the country total 2005 estimated GDP 90 55771384 7974584973544 265819499118.133 965172071016.382 GDP coastal area GDP coastal area GDP coastal area GDP coastal area GDP coastal area GDP in z1 using gridded 2005 GDP 90 5823194 1375029637604 45834321253.467 178617245711.89 GDP in current storm surge zone GDP in current storm surge zone GDP in current storm surge zone GDP in current storm surge zone GDP in current storm surge zone GDP in z2 using gridded 2005 GDP 90 524367 268684843006 8956161433.533 33731199548.93 Increment in GDP exposure with climate change Increment in GDP exposure with climate change Increment in GDP exposure with climate change Increment in GDP exposure with climate change Increment in GDP exposure with climate change GDP in z1 using gridded 2005 GDP 90 170052 122109546336 4070318211.2 15956957795.748 GDP in Surge zone with climate change GDP in Surge zone with climate change GDP in Surge zone with climate change GDP in Surge zone with climate change GDP in Surge zone with climate change 90 694419 390794389342 13026479644.733 49633464059.673 GDPZ2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ2 over GDPCOAST 90 2 60.5 26.134 11.244 GDPZ1+Z2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ1+Z2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ1+Z2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ1+Z2 over GDPCOAST GDPZ1+Z2 over GDPCOAST 90 2.7 65.7 35.003 13.039 % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC 90 7.8 122.1 38.479 19.233 (GDPZ1/GDPZ2)*100 Country name Country name Country name Country name Country name 90 Algeria Angola Argentina Bahamas Bangladesh Belize Benin Brazil Brunei Cambodia Cameroon Chile China Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Cuba DPR Korea Djibouti Dominican Republic East Asia and Pacific Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea French Guiana Gabon Ghana Global Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Iran Jamaica Kenya Korea Kuwait Latin America and the Caribbean Liberia Libya Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mexico Middle East and North Africa Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nicaragua Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Puerto Rico Qatar Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Asia Sri Lanka Sub-Saharan Africa Sudan Suriname Taiwan Tanzania Thailand The Gambia Togo Tunisia UAE Uruguay Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline length of coastline from DIVA database (km) 90 44.211 269596 8986.53 32040.593 coastal zone defined as elevation < 10 m Total area of cropland (km2) Total area of cropland (km2) Total area of cropland (km2) Total area of cropland (km2) Total area of cropland (km2) total area of cropland from globcov (2005) 90 6474010 215800.333 815382.15 AG1 = rainfed/irrigated/post-flooding cropland Coastal area of cropland (km2) Coastal area of cropland (km2) Coastal area of cropland (km2) Coastal area of cropland (km2) Coastal area of cropland (km2) area of croplands in coastal zone (km²) 90 505265 16842.167 67181.842 Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) Current surge zone (km2) area of croplands in z2 (km²) 90 59336 1977.867 7919.317 Cropland in current of cropland with climate change Cropland in current of cropland with climate change Cropland in current of cropland with climate change Cropland in current of cropland with climate change Cropland in current of cropland with climate change area of croplands in z1 (km²) 90 29164 972.133 3855.094 Cropland in surge zone with climate change Cropland in surge zone with climate change Cropland in surge zone with climate change Cropland in surge zone with climate change Cropland in surge zone with climate change 90 88500 2950 11769.371 AG1Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z2 over AREACOAST 83 7 100 18.071 22.556 AG1Z1+Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z1+Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z1+Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z1+Z2 over AREACOAST AG1Z1+Z2 over AREACOAST 83 7 100 22.51 23.536 % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC 59 31 14.3 328.6 67.964 60.864 (AG1Z1/AG1Z2)*100 Country name Country name Country name Country name Country name 90 Algeria Angola Argentina Bahamas Bangladesh Belize Benin Brazil Brunei Cambodia Cameroon Chile China Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Cuba DPR Korea Djibouti Dominican Republic East Asia and Pacific Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea French Guiana Gabon Ghana Global Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Iran Jamaica Kenya Korea Kuwait Latin America and the Caribbean Liberia Libya Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mexico Middle East and North Africa Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nicaragua Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Puerto Rico Qatar Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Asia Sri Lanka Sub-Saharan Africa Sudan Suriname Taiwan Tanzania Thailand The Gambia Togo Tunisia UAE Uruguay Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline length of coastline from DIVA database (km) 90 44.211 269596 8986.53 32040.593 coastal zone defined as elevation < 10 m Total country urban area (km2) Total country urban area (km2) Total country urban area (km2) Total country urban area (km2) Total country urban area (km2) urban area as defined by GRUMP 90 83 1646992 54899.733 194254.466 Coastal urban area (km2) Coastal urban area (km2) Coastal urban area (km2) Coastal urban area (km2) Coastal urban area (km2) area of coastal zone that is defined as urban in GRUMP 90 10 206254 6875.133 25263.831 Urban Area in Current Surge Zone Urban Area in Current Surge Zone Urban Area in Current Surge Zone Urban Area in Current Surge Zone Urban Area in Current Surge Zone area of z2 that is defined as urban in GRUMP 90 2 40189 1339.633 4758.097 Increment in exposure of Urban Area with climate change Increment in exposure of Urban Area with climate change Increment in exposure of Urban Area with climate change Increment in exposure of Urban Area with climate change Increment in exposure of Urban Area with climate change area of z1 that is defined as urban in GRUMP 90 1 14991 499.7 1796.677 Urban Area in Surge zone with climate change Urban Area in Surge zone with climate change Urban Area in Surge zone with climate change Urban Area in Surge zone with climate change Urban Area in Surge zone with climate change 90 3 55180 1839.333 6551.931 URBZ2 over URBCOAST URBZ2 over URBCOAST URBZ2 over URBCOAST URBZ2 over URBCOAST URBZ2 over URBCOAST 90 4.2 88.2 28.248 12.833 URBZ1+Z2 over URBCOAST URBZ1+Z2 over URBCOAST URBZ1+Z2 over URBCOAST URBZ1+Z2 over URBCOAST URBZ1+Z2 over URBCOAST 90 8.3 94.1 36.894 14.388 % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC 90 5.6 130.1 35.209 19.536 (URBZ1/URBZ2)*100 Country name Country name Country name Country name Country name 90 Algeria Angola Argentina Bahamas Bangladesh Belize Benin Brazil Brunei Cambodia Cameroon Chile China Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Cuba DPR Korea Djibouti Dominican Republic East Asia and Pacific Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea French Guiana Gabon Ghana Global Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Iran Jamaica Kenya Korea Kuwait Latin America and the Caribbean Liberia Libya Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mexico Middle East and North Africa Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nicaragua Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Puerto Rico Qatar Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Asia Sri Lanka Sub-Saharan Africa Sudan Suriname Taiwan Tanzania Thailand The Gambia Togo Tunisia UAE Uruguay Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline Km of coastline length of coastline from DIVA database (km) 90 44.211 269596 8986.53 32040.593 coastal zone defined as elevation < 10 m Total wetland area (km2) Total wetland area (km2) Total wetland area (km2) Total wetland area (km2) Total wetland area (km2) total wetland area from Global Lakes and Wetlands database (excluding lakes and rivers) (km²) 90 4388959 146298.633 517582.247 Area of coastal wetland (km2) Area of coastal wetland (km2) Area of coastal wetland (km2) Area of coastal wetland (km2) Area of coastal wetland (km2) area of wetlands in coastal zone (km²) 90 663930 22131 77354.852 Wetlands in current storm surge zone Wetlands in current storm surge zone Wetlands in current storm surge zone Wetlands in current storm surge zone Wetlands in current storm surge zone area of wetlands in z2 (km²) 90 152767 5092.233 17606.077 Increment in exposure of wetlands with climate change Increment in exposure of wetlands with climate change Increment in exposure of wetlands with climate change Increment in exposure of wetlands with climate change Increment in exposure of wetlands with climate change area of wetlands in z1 (km²) 90 45741 1524.7 5284.957 Wetlands in surge zone with climate change Wetlands in surge zone with climate change Wetlands in surge zone with climate change Wetlands in surge zone with climate change Wetlands in surge zone with climate change 90 198508 6616.933 22880.734 GLWDZ2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ2 over GLWD1COAST 89 1 100 30.824 21.101 GLWDZ1+Z2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ1+Z2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ1+Z2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ1+Z2 over GLWD1COAST GLWDZ1+Z2 over GLWD1COAST 89 1 100 37.84 21.447 % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC % increase in surge zone with CC 85 5 2.1 339.1 40.695 49.436 (GLWD1Z1/ GLWD1Z2)*100