DDI_WLD_1993_LACPRG_v01_M 2010-09-15 NADA Version 01 (September 2010) Has Latin America's Post-reform Growth Been Disappointing? 1960-1993 LACPRG 1993 WLD_1993_LACPRG_v01_M William R. Easterly and Norman V. Loayza NADA Development Research Group After years of poor economic performance, many Latin American countries undertook ambitious programs of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform during recent years. The change in policy created high expectations for the region. Some observers question, however, whether actual growth outcomes in several Latin American countries have measured up to such expectations. This paper offers some evidence that the response of economic growth to reforms in Latin America has not been disappointing. Because of the significant changes in policies achieved in Latin America by the 1990s and in spite of the global slowdown, Latin America did well to return to its historic rate of growth of 2 percent per capita in 1990-93. Latin America growth has responded to changes in policy variables as would have been predicted by the experience of other times and places, as summarized by a panel regression spanning all countries and multi-year periods from 1960 to 1993. In order to obtain consistent estimates of the parameters linking policy variables and growth, this paper uses a dynamic panel methodology that both controls for unobserved time- and country-specific effects and accounts for the likely joint endogeneity of the explanatory variables. This is the data used in the paper "Has Latin America's Post-Reform Growth Been Disappointing?" by William Easterly, Norman Loayza, and Peter Montiel (Journal of International Economics, 1997). Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bolivia Brazil Botswana Central African Republic Canada Switzerland Chile Cameroon Congo, Dem. Rep. Colombia Costa Rica Cyprus Germany Denmark Dominican Republic Algeria Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. Spain Finland France United Kingdom Ghana Gambia, The Greece Guatemala Hong Kong SAR, China Honduras Haiti Indonesia India Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Jordan Japan Kenya Korea, Rep. Sri Lanka Mexico Mali Mauritius Malawi Malaysia Niger Nicaragua Netherlands Norway Pakistan Panama Peru Philippines Portugal Paraguay Rwanda Sudan Senegal Singapore Sierra Leone El Salvador Sweden Eswatini Togo Thailand Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkiye Uganda Uruguay United States Venezuela, RB South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe Aggregate data [agg] The dataset includes the following indicators: - Average annual GDP growth rate - Average (real exports + real imports)/real GDP - Average annual inflation rate - Average (M2/end of year CPI)/(GDP/average year CPI) - Average real investment/real GDP - Lagged real GDP - Average years of secondary schooling in the population 15 years of age and older - Average black-market premium on foreign exchange - Average change in the terms of trade - Average population growth rate Other [oth] Use of the dataset must be acknowledged using a citation which would include: - the Identification of the Primary Investigator - the title of the survey (including acronym and year of implementation) - the survey reference number - the source and date of download Example: William R. Easterly and Norman V. Loayza, World Bank . Has Latin America's Post-reform Growth Been Disappointing? (LACPRG) 1960-1993. Ref.WLD_1993_LACPRG_v01_M. Dataset downloaded from http://microdata.worldbank.org on [date] The user of the data acknowledges that the original collector of the data, the authorized distributor of the data, and the relevant funding agency bear no responsibility for use of the data or for interpretations or inferences based upon such uses. GRPANEL 448 15 Country Country Country Country Country 448 ARG AUS AUT BEL BGD BOL BRA BWA CAF CAN CHE CHL CMR COG COL CRI CYP DEU DNK DOM DZA ECU EGY ESP FIN FRA GBR GHA GMB GRC GTM HKG HND HTI IDN IND IRL ISR ITA JAM JOR JPN KEN KOR LKA MEX MLI MUS MWI MYS NER NIC NLD NOR PAK PAN PER PHL PRT PRY RWA SDN SEN SGP SLE SLV SWE SWZ TGO THA TTO TUN TUR UGA URY USA VEN ZAF ZAR ZMB ZWE No. of Observations No. of Observations No. of Observations No. of Observations No. of Observations 448 1 7 6.219 1.337 Country ID Country ID Country ID Country ID Country ID 448 1 100 49.478 28.982 Period Period Period Period Period 448 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 average annual GDP growth rate average annual GDP growth rate average annual GDP growth rate average annual GDP growth rate average annual GDP growth rate 448 -11.666 12.672 1.756 2.93 average (real exports + real imports) / real GDP average (real exports + real imports) / real GDP average (real exports + real imports) / real GDP average (real exports + real imports) / real GDP average (real exports + real imports) / real GDP 448 9.672 431.138 56.084 40.863 GCON GCON GCON GCON GCON 448 5.328 35.885 14.186 5.145 average annual inflation rate average annual inflation rate average annual inflation rate average annual inflation rate average annual inflation rate 448 -4.072 993.818 24.284 79.853 average (M2/end of year CPI) / (GDP/ average year CPI) average (M2/end of year CPI) / (GDP/ average year CPI) average (M2/end of year CPI) / (GDP/ average year CPI) average (M2/end of year CPI) / (GDP/ average year CPI) average (M2/end of year CPI) / (GDP/ average year CPI) 448 2.688 122.336 38.762 23.67 average real investment / real GDP average real investment / real GDP average real investment / real GDP average real investment / real GDP average real investment / real GDP 448 5.629 46.63 21.902 6.294 lagged real GDP lagged real GDP lagged real GDP lagged real GDP lagged real GDP 448 72.171 27323.471 4288.652 5610.875 For example LGDP corresponding to period 1971-75 is the real GDP for 1970. average years of secondary schooling in the population 15 years of age and older average years of secondary schooling in the population 15 years of age and older average years of secondary schooling in the population 15 years of age and older average years of secondary schooling in the population 15 years of age and older average years of secondary schooling in the population 15 years of age and older 448 0.04 5.15 1.185 0.952 average black-market premium on foreign exchange average black-market premium on foreign exchange average black-market premium on foreign exchange average black-market premium on foreign exchange average black-market premium on foreign exchange 448 -0.0548 13.278 0.284 0.921 average change in the terms of trade average change in the terms of trade average change in the terms of trade average change in the terms of trade average change in the terms of trade 448 -0.228 0.275 -0.014 0.0439 average population growth rate average population growth rate average population growth rate average population growth rate average population growth rate 448 -9.1 6.4 1.96 1.324