The first essay discusses some economic
implications of marriages of children. Of particular
interest is the strategic behaviour of the parents of the
children. A simple two-period model with very general
assumptions is developed and some interesting results are
obtained. These results are summarized in eight
propositions. This essay consists of four parts.
It is first shown that a symmetric Nash equilibrium
does not exist unless constraints are imposed. We find that
such an equilibrium does exist if bequests are non-negative,
if bequests to sons and daughters are equal, and if
preferences are heterogeneous. The second part of the essay
looks at how one set of parents will react to the actions of
another set by adjusting the level of bequests to sons and
daughters. The theoretical model yields reasonable
predictions of parental behaviour.
The third part examines the efficiency of a Nash
equilibrium when it exists and proves that a Nash
equilibrium is Pareto-inefficient. corrective policies are
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suggested. Finally, the results of the theoretical analysis
are found to be independent of whether fertility is
exogenous or endogenous. Furthermore, a conjecture by
Edgeworth is confirmed by the model: individual decision
makers are likely to ignore the impact of their fertility
choices on popUlation growth, and when this occurs underpopUlation
is inevitable.
The second essay investigates socioeconomic
determinants of individual fertility in China, utilizing a
valuable micro-data set (China ts 1985 In-Depth Fertility
Survey) . The chicago Model, Easterlin's Theories and
Leibensteints Model are used to develop an econometric model
of fertility for China. The model incorporates some special
features of Chinese societies that are relevant to fertility
behaviour. Ordinary least squares, Tobit maximum likelihood
and sequential logit procedures are applied to estimate the
model. Several theoretic and statistical problems are
discussed and appropriate ways are used to take them into
account whenever possible.
It is found that marriage duration, child mortality,
sex preference, education of woman, occupation of husband,
family structure, and durable ownership are significant
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factors in determining individual fertility. Marriage
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duration, replacement effect of child deaths and male
preference for children all appear to be positively related
to fertility. The relationship between level of education
of woman and fertility is not linear. Furthermore, it is
found that fertility falls as occupational status of husband
rises, that women living in extended families have higher
fertility, and that owning a durable has a negative effect
on fertility