Pastoral communities in East Africa are facing considerable challenges arising from shifts
in land tenure policy from communal to individual landholdings and high human population
growth rates. Over the last 30 years, livestock-to-human ratios have generally declined to levels
that will no longer support pure pastoralism. Many Maasai have thus diversified into cultivation,
wage labour, and small businesses. Livelihood expectations are rising, with
concomitant increases in the need for cash. We describe the modification of PHEWS, a simple
rule-based model that tracks cash flow and calories in agro-pastoral households. We use it,
coupled to Savanna, a sophisticated ecosystem model, to quantify some of the effects of subdivision
and land fragmentation on household livestock numbers and on food security. For
the group ranches simulated, model outputs indicate that subdivision results in substantial
reductions in livestock numbers, partially because households have to sell more animals to
generate the cash needed, with serious long-term consequences on herd sizes and food security.
If subdivision occurs, even to parcels as large as 196 km2
, livelihood strategies may need to be
modified to maintain current levels of household well-being. Model results have been discussed in community meetings in southern Kajiado, but more work is needed on communication
mechanisms to utilise more effectively the results of imperfect but useful integrated assessments
of complex problems concerning land use and human well-being.