Background: With the recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, featuring decreasing incidences of
infectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, cancer is becoming a serious problem for
the country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females, not only in the southern regions, but
throughout Thailand. Surat Thani is a province in the upper part of Southern Thailand. A study was needed
to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer. Materials and Methods: Here we used
cancer incidence data from the Surat Thani Cancer Registry to characterize the incidences of breast cancer.
Joinpoint analysis was used to investigate the incidences in the province from 2004 to 2012 and to project future
trends from 2013 to 2030. Results: Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts
of Southern Thailand increased from 35.1 to 59.2 cases per 100,000 female population, which is equivalent to
an annual percentage change of 4.5-4.8%. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence.
Joinpoint projection suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for
women aged 50 and above, at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current early
detection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and
human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.