How powerful is the impact of the economy on election outcomes in Africa1
? Do African
electorates hold their governments accountable for the economic conditions they face? The
classical concepts of the African voter suggest that they do not. In the past, voters south of the
Sahara were often portrayed as primarily ethnic and clientelistic. Themes such as ethnic block
voting and vote buying dominated the academic literature and led to a widespread image of
Africans holding leaders accountable for everything but political performance. But the economic
voting hypothesis has gained a lot of plausibility in recent decades. Ever more sophisticated
research on voting behavior in Africa hints increasingly at a more governance-oriented voter. In
the words of Lindberg and Morrison (2008), scholars observe a trend from “non-evaluative
voting rationales” towards “evaluative voting rationales”. If such a trend exists, economic voting
becomes likely. The topic is, however, largely unexplored for African democracies.
This thesis is thus dedicated to a close look at the economic factor in African elections. I present
a case study of the West African nation Ghana, tracing the impact of the economy on three
presidential elections between 2004 and 2012. The research design links survey data, objective
macro-economic indicators and a detailed analysis of actual election outcomes to arrive at
tangible conclusions about the influence of the economy on the elections under scrutiny. The
results indicate that the state of the economy is a decisive variable in Ghana’s highly competitive
democracy. For the elections of 2004 and 2012, I find a strong effect that is evident in the survey
data, obvious in the election results and, moreover, absolute consistent with objective macroeconomic
developments. The observations in 2008 are more ambiguous but hold interesting
insights regarding the attribution of political responsibility.