Type | Working Paper |
Title | Identification and quantification of streamflow trends in Botswana: Implications for water security under global climate change |
Author(s) | |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2011 |
Abstract | The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0 o C by the year 2100 compared to current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose serious challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and complex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore observational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in streamflow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and partial correlation. Streamflows display decreasing trends for most streams highlighting the importance of local monitoring of streamflow for informed water management strategies. |
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