Type | Thesis or Dissertation - Master of science |
Title | Statistical modeling of unemployment duration in South Africa |
Author(s) | |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2015 |
URL | http://uir.unisa.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10500/20982/dissertation_nonyana_jz.pdf?sequence=1 |
Abstract | Unemployment in South Africa has continued to be consistently high as indicated by the various reports published by Statistics South Africa. Unemployment is a global problem where in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries it is related to economic condition. The economic conditions are not solely responsible for the problem of unemployment in South Africa. Consistently high unemployment rates are observed irrespective of the level of economic growth, where unemployment responds marginally to changes Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To understand factors that influence unemployment in South Africa, we need to understand the dynamics of the unemployed population. This study aims at providing a statistical tool useful in improving the understanding of the labour market and enhancing of the labour market policy relevancy. Survival techniques are applied to determine duration dependence, probabilities of exiting unemployment, and the association between socio-demographic factors and unemployment duration. A labour force panel data from Statistic South Africa is used to analyse the time it takes an unemployed person to find employment. The dataset has 4.9 million people who were unemployed during the third quarter of 2013. The data is analysed by computing nonparametric and semi-parametric estimates to avoid making assumption about the functional form of the hazard. |
» | South Africa - Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa 2013 |