Will a growing population lead to depletion of natural resources and eventually economic collapse, as
predicted by Malthus, or rather to innovations in the agricultural sector improving agricultural
potential of land, as hypothesized by Boserup? This centuries-old puzzle is as relevant as ever in some
densely populated regions of Sub-Saharan Africa where population growth is still alarmingly high and
shows no sign of slowing down, leading to enormous pressure on land. In this paper, we quantify the
relationship between population pressure and land intensification in Burundi, one of the most densely
populated regions in Africa. Using data from a nationally representative agricultural survey (n=2050),
we find evidence of both Malthusian and Boserupian processes. In line with Boserup’s theory, the use
of fertilizer and labour, yields and food production initially increases with population pressure, but
decreases again when population densities exceed a critical threshold, supporting Malthus’ prediction.
For instance, in regions with a population density of less than 200 persons/km², every increase of 100
persons/km² leads to increases in yields of more than 20% but yields decrease as soon as a critical
threshold of 500 persons/km² is reached. These limits to intensification confirm findings from previous
studies on densely populated regions in Sub-Saharan Africa (Jayne, Chamberlin, & Headey, 2014).