Choosing appropriate management strategies and
effective conservation actions requires information
about the future consequences of current conservation
actions; however, this crucial information is rarely
available to conservation planners. This study
applies scenario planning and agent-based modelling
(ABM) to assess the potential impact of alternative
management strategies on future suitability and
functional connectivity of Cross River gorilla (CRG)
habitat in the Nigeria–Cameroon border region. The
CRG population is small and fragmented, with
many subpopulations and migration corridors located
outside protected areas. This study used ABM to
simulate human land use in the study area over
a period of 15 years under different management
scenarios and assessed the impact on future suitability
and functional connectivity of CRG habitat. The
simulations showed that a landscape approach with
greater focus on interventions to change human
behaviour towards conserving gorillas and sustainable
forest use would result in greater improvement
in habitat suitability and functional connectivity
compared to focusing on improving law enforcement
within existing protected areas. However, the best
scenarios were when both law enforcement and
behaviour change increased. The results highlight
the importance of human behaviour change to
conservation in human-dominated landscapes and can
inform conservation planning and management of
other species and in similar landscapes.