Forecasting trade behaviour of major food crops in four leading SAARC countries

Type Journal Article - Pakistan Economic and Social Review
Title Forecasting trade behaviour of major food crops in four leading SAARC countries
Author(s)
Volume 52
Issue 2
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
Page numbers 209-226
URL http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/pesr/PDF-FILES/7 IQBAL Forecasting Trade Behavior of Major Food​Crops.pdf
Abstract
Poverty alleviation is going to become the hot stack in the
world. Many of the researchers and policy makers are engaged to overcome
this problem. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) consists of a rich topographic, climatic endowments and variations.
The region is blessed with cereals, fruits, ornamental, medicinal and
staple foods of diverse varieties. SAARC countries have a capacity to
produce a quantum of foreign exchange by its agriculture export
programmes. This sector has the potential to uplift income, alleviate
hunger, poverty and thus to cut down socio-economic constraints of the
region. The study under consideration is an outcome of decomposition
method to check the future state of economic and trade affairs in four
major countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) of SAARC
for different commodities (Cotton lint, Rice milled and Sugar refined).
Data used in this study is taken from Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) during 1970 to 2010, while for Bangladesh the period has been
considered from 1972 to 2010. The results reveal that India will enjoy
optimum level in the export of cotton, sugar and rice while Pakistan will
achieve second level and future export of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will
remain at low level in all the commodities.

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