Growth in Pakistan has been surprisingly sustainable. GDP growth of 5
percent p.a. since independence and no recession since (at least) 1960 according
to World Bank data represents a creditable performance when compared to all but
the most successful developing countries. Pakistan has significantly transformed
the structure of its economy during these same decades; in 1950 99 percent of its
exports were agricultural goods and by the 1990s exports were largely
manufactured goods. This very success indicates a growing constraint on
sustaining growth into the future or the concern that Pakistan may be headed for
a Middle Income Trap. Although there does exist scope for continued growth
based on further structural changes - in particular the large number of people
still employed in agriculture or the women not currently engaged in the labor
force - for growth to be sustained a more intensive or productivity-oriented
growth will be necessary. This paper first outlines the importance of
productivity growth for sustaining GDP growth in Pakistan, then examines the
historical and comparative productivity performance of Pakistan, and explores a
number of case studies of successful technological change, particularly in South
Asia, and finally attempts to draw some lessons for contemporary Pakistan.