The impact of digitisation on the retail economy has caused disruption in almost
every developed country around the globe. While ecommerce is in its infancy in
South Africa, most retailers acknowledge that there is a global shift in consumer
behaviour toward digital shopping experiences. Should this revolution play out to its
full potential, one must question whether South African retailers can adapt and thrive
in this new world.
Local retailers face unique complexities with regard to building a viable online retail
capability. This includes structural complexities such as unemployment and
infrastructure impediments, as well as entrenched shopping behaviours and cultural
nuances. This futures study examines these influences - through qualitative
research, environmental scanning and scenarios - and aims to conceptualise a
longer-term outcome for ecommerce within the local retail sector. The study also
aims to derive a set of plausible implications should retailers fail to adopt a longerterm
outlook.
The results of this study indicate that South Africans remain cautious in their
approach to online shopping, particularly in relation to payment security and fraud.
Additionally, while computer literacy is on the rise, a strong correlation between
education and affluence, and consumers’ likelihood to shop online, has been
observed. The study indicates that the mobile revolution will continue, and retailers
that invest in technology readiness, regardless of cyclical downturns, will likely
dominate in the future. However, the study also identifies gaps in knowledge within
the sector that signals a lack of long-term thinking. This study attempts to highlight
these gaps as well as provide strategic recommendations for retailers, with a
particular focus on generating foresight, adaptability and robustness within an
organisation.