Sana’a the metropolitan capital of Yemen, has
experienced rapid spatial growth and uncontrolled development
for decades. In the absence of a means to forecast
and predict urban growth trends, planning and urban
policy decisions have been found wanting. In this study
the SLEUTH (Slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent,
transportation and hillshade) model which has been widely
and successfully applied in developed countries, has
been applied to predict the spatial urban sprawl pattern
from 2004–2020 in Sana’a. This was to provide the
necessary forecast for better planning and decision making.
The model performed well as per the calibration
coefficient values. The results showed that there will a
29 % increase in spatial urban sprawl growth during the
modeling period. Growth of the sprawl will be mainly at
the edges of the urban boundary, there will also be a wide
area of scattered urban clusters. Factors that will have
major influence on spatial expansion of the city will be
diffusion, natural and internal growth, slope (that will
hinder spread) and transportation (along which most of
the urban sprawl will occur). The study also provides an
insight into how the SLEUTH model performs in a poorly
planned urban environment as compared to the planned
and controlled environment where it has been applied.