This paper uses Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate
the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the “Arab
Spring.” The results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent,
5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and
2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series
of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with
those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of
Tunisia’s economic growth. Moreover, this paper finds
that investment was the main channel through which
the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring