Rising food prices and low agricultural productivity are
major threats to feeding the teeming population of the most
populous nation in Africa - Nigeria. Besides, poverty
incidence in Nigeria constitutes a drawback to agricultural
and economic development. Low agricultural productivity
(output per hectare or yield) for cereals has often been
implicated for the double tragedy of high food prices and
increase in poverty levels, especially for net buyers or
importing countries. Hence, the need to analyze the nexus
with food prices, agricultural productivity and poverty
levels in order to underscore the need for promoting
sustainable development in Nigeria. An assessment of the
connections among food prices, agricultural productivity and
poverty levels would help to formulate appropriate policies
for exiting the poverty trap, and promoting sustainable
agricultural and economic development in Nigeria. Food
prices, productivity and poverty mapping would inform
appropriate and location-specific policy targeting and
development planning for sustainable development.
This study provides an assessment and mapping of a major
cereal (maize) prices, agricultural productivity (yield) and
poverty levels, as drivers of sustainable development.
Overall, two patterns of change for each of the variables (food
price, productivity and poverty levels) were identified and
analyzed. These patterns are high or moderate price change,productivity increase or decrease, and increase or decrease in
poverty levels. The overlay and mapping of the three
variables of price of maize, productivity, and poverty changes
by development domains in Nigeria were undertaken. This
study used periodic and spatial data on maize prices, maize
yields and poverty levels in Nigeria.
Based on the objectives of Nigeria’s agricultural and
economic development policy outcomes of moderate price
change, increased agricultural productivity and poverty
reduction, the study revealed that only three states (Kaduna,
Rivers, and Akwa Ibom) out of 37 development domains
satisfied these sustainable development outcomes.
The study revealed the nexus in food price, productivity and
poverty by development domains in Nigeria. It submitted
that there was a low level of effectiveness in agricultural and
economic development outcomes. Therefore, it recommends
that policies on food price stabilization, agricultural
productivity increases and poverty reduction be pursued
simultaneously for effective transition from low development
outcomes to sustainable agricultural and economic
development outcomes in Nigeria.