This paper investigates fertility in Nepal using the measures of parity progression proposed by Brass and Juarez (1983) to detect the onset of fertility decline. The analysis is based largely on the 1991 Nepal Fertility, Family Planning and Health Survey. Evaluation of the birth history data collected in this survey indicates that they are sufficiently reliable to determine fertility trends. The sample size allows analysis at sub-national level. Supporting evidence as to the pattern of decline is provided by the 1991 Census and by earlier surveys.

A rapid fall in fertility occurred in Nepal in the 1980s. By 1991, total fertility had fallen from at least 6 children to a little under 5. A small part of this decline is probably a temporary period effect, stemming from a rise in women's ages at marriage. Most of the decline can be explained by limitation of family size. Parity progression ratios from the third birth onwards all decrease consistently from cohort to cohort. Measures of parity progression calculated from the 1991 data agree well with those calculated for equivalent cohorts using the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey data. They indicate that progression between middle-order births probably began to decrease as long ago as the early 1970s.

When looking at differentials in fertility levels and trends it is clear that fertility has fallen throughout Nepal. Analysis of the regional pattern of decline reveals a complex pattern. Broadly speaking, fertility decline has been more dramatic in the eastern half of Nepal, and also stronger in the Terai and hills than in the mountain. Fertility has fallen furthest in the urban areas and among women who ever attended school.

The middle-order parity progression ratios of younger women have fallen dramatically. This development is likely to presage a steep decline in fertility in Nepal during the 1990s. The paper concludes with a short discussion of the implications of its findings for the interpretation of fertility transition in Nepal. It suggests that substantial demand to limit family size is well-established in Nepal. Fertility declined as access to modern methods of contraception spread.