A new method for correcting the under-estimation of disabled life expectancy inherent in conventional methods: Application to the oldest old in China

Type Working Paper - Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Title A new method for correcting the under-estimation of disabled life expectancy inherent in conventional methods: Application to the oldest old in China
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2003
URL http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-033.pdf
Abstract
This article demonstrates that the widely used disabled life expectancies based on conventional
methods are significantly underestimated due to assuming no functional status changes between age
x and death. We propose a new method to correct the bias and apply it to the longitudinal survey
data of about 9,000 oldest old Chinese aged 80-105 collected in 1998 and 2000. In our application
the age trajectories of ADL status-specific death rates and ADL state transition probabilities of the
oldest old were investigated for the first time in a developing country. We have estimated the biascorrected
disabled and active life expectancies of Chinese oldest old, and demonstrate patterns of
large differentials associated with initial status, gender and advances in ages. Employing combined
information on ADL and length of having been bedridden before dying, we analyze gender and age
patterns of the extent of morbidity before dying among the oldest old and the implications of the
debating hypothesis of compression of morbidity

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