Type | Journal Article - Population and Development Review |
Title | Who wins and who loses? Public transfer accounts for US generations born 1850 to 2090 |
Author(s) | |
Volume | 36 |
Issue | 1 |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2010 |
Page numbers | 1-26 |
URL | http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/BCH/OG/BommierLeeMillerZuber_wins_PDR_10.pdf |
Abstract | VIRTUALLY ALL industrial countries have instituted public-sector programs to provide public education, health care (at least for the elderly), and pay-asyou-go pensions on a nearly universal basis. Many developing countries are following their example. It is widely acknowledged that population aging will exert intense fiscal pressure on these programs. For the most part, countries have left in place programs that are fiscally unbalanced and in the long run demonstrably unsustainable. Although the clamor for reform grows louder each year, the public strongly resists any reduction in benefits. While the need to reform public pensions and health care is undisputed, there is strong disagreement about how that reform should be designed. Some argue for a rapid reform, so that future generations are not unfairly burdened by large public debt. Others suggest that rapid reform would be unfair to current generations, especially those near retirement. The notion of fairness is therefore central to the discussion. Fairness is generally difficult to define, and the intergenerational nature of the dilemma makes it even more so. Various approaches have been suggested: utilitarianist, Rawlsian, generational accounting, among others. These approaches can substantially differ, but they share a longitudinal (that is, intertemporal) view. For most people, it would make little sense to discuss the fairness of pension benefits without considering personal contributions. |