The one-child family policy in China, if successfully implemented, will
drastically alter the population age structure in the coming years which
will in turn affect the demand and supply of the welfare state. Using
several population indices projected on the basis of different total fertility
rates, it is found that the aged population will increase significantly
and hence their needs for social services including social security
and health care will increase accordingly. Because the responsibility
for caring for the old in China still largely falls on the family, it is
important to establish an universal social security system supported by
the State in order to reduce fertility. On the other hand, because the
baby boom cohort in the 1960s are entering their adult ages, the labor
force will continue to grow and maintain at a high level for at least
another forty years, despite the decline in birth rate. While the shrinkage
of the young will offset part of the increaasing burden of the
elderly, the government must develop an universal social security system
and improve occupational welfare, child care, and higher education
in the near future in order to achieve the goals of the four modernizations
as well as population control.