This monograph describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy.
It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should have to respond to a failed
state, especially one of vital interest to the United States and one on the cusp of a civil war. Nation-states
can fail for a myriad of reasons: cultural or religious conflict, a broken social contract between the
government and the governed, a catastrophic natural disaster, financial collapse, war and so forth. Nigeria
with its vast oil wealth, large population, and strategic position in Africa and the global economy can, if it
fails disproportionately affect the United States and the global economy. Nigeria, like many nations in
Africa, gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1960. It is the most populous country in Africa
and will have nearly 250 million people by 2030. In its relatively short modern history, Nigeria has
survived five military coups as well as separatist and religious wars, is mired in an active armed
insurgency, is suffering from disastrous ecological conditions in its Niger Delta region, and is fighting one
of the modern world?s worst legacies of political and economic corruption. A nation with more than 350
ethnic groups, 250 languages, and three distinct religious affiliations?Christian, Islamic, and animist
Nigeria?s 135 million people today are anything but homogenous. Of Nigeria?s 36 states, 12 are Islamic
and under the strong and growing influence of the Sokoto caliphate. While religious and ethnic violence
are commonplace, the federal government has managed to strike a tenuous balance among the disparate
religious and ethnic factions. With such demographics, Nigeria?s failure would be akin to a piece of fine
china dropped on a tile floor?it would simply shatter into potentially hundreds of pieces. Poor investment
in the nation?s critical infrastructure and underinvestment in health care, education, science, and
technology are all leading to a ?brain drain? in which Nigeria?s most talented and educated citizens are
leaving the country. This will leave a future Nigeria even poorer. Nascent attempts to address electoral and
governmental corruption are meeting with some success and hold promise for the future. Recent meetings
between the president and insurgent groups may, over time, help resolve some of Nigeria?s most
intractable and dangerous internal conflicts. The population?s disappointment in its government has not
appreciably shaken its faith in democracy. Elections are and will likely remain an important part of
Nigerian life as they, despite the odds, provide the people hope that they can make a difference as Nigeria
struggles to succeed. Nigeria becoming a failed state is not a foregone conclusion. However, should the
oil-rich state of Nigeria, a nation likely to provide up to 25