The objective of this study is to characterize residential land development in three regions
with different population densities in Lagos, Nigeria. Land use changes were mapped from
satellite images, while logistic regression was used to model the probability of residential land
development as a function of spatially explicit biophysical and social dataset. Residential land
conversion within the low population density region occurred on the highest elevations, in
areas with the highest proportion of rural land and change in population potential, and at the
farthest distances from the central business district and designated industrial centers.
Conversely, new residential land development within the high population density region
occurred at the farthest distance from major roads, waterworks and protected forests. Higher
rates of development in low to medium density regions suggest that the dominant process of
land change is extensification of residential areas. These patterns have significant policy
implications for urban management in Lagos.