The main objective of the present study was to determine the value of impacts due to climate change
on the agricultural sector in the Caribbean under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B2 scenarios. More specifically, the study aimed to
evaluate the direction and magnitude of the potential impacts of climate change on aggregate
agricultural output and other key agricultural indicators. Further, the study forecast changes in income
for agricultural output for key subsectors under the A2 and B2 scenarios, from 2011 to 2050. It
analysed the benefits and costs of the key adaptation strategies identified by Caribbean Governments.
The Global Agro-Ecological Zones Model, developed jointly by the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, was
used to determine potential changes in production capacities for the top five commodities (by volume)
produced in the Caribbean. Estimates focused on sugarcane, rice, banana/plantain, cassava, yam,
sweet potato and tomato. Estimates were calculated of percentage changes in annual average income,
and changes in land suitability for specific crops.
Initial results indicated that significant losses in the estimated production of key agricultural
crops with the exception of rice, was to be expected as a result of climate change. Under the A2
scenario, the estimated rice yield fell by approximately 3 per cent by the 2050s; however, under the
B2 scenario, the potential rice yield would be expected to rise by approximately 2 per cent during the
same period. The estimated output for all other crops was expected to fall by approximately 12 per
cent under the A2 scenario by the 2050s, but only by 7 per cent over the same period.