1. This report provides one of the first detailed analyses of comprehensive and representative
survey data on perceptions of public services and trust in public institutions in Sudan. Our
analysis provides a foundation for evidence-based policymaking for DFID and other
policymakers in Sudan.
2. We highlight the importance of considering perceptions and trust in the conflict-context and
based on our analysis argue that a balanced view incorporating both provision and perceptions
of public services should be considered when devising policy.
3. In Sudan, both horizontal (that is group-based) and vertical (at the individual-level)
inequalities have persisted in public services. Based on our examination of the determinants of
perceptions of service quality, including socioeconomic and demographic variables and levels
of actual provision, we find that cross-cutting horizontal and vertical inequalities drive
variation in perceptions of public service quality in education, health and WAS.
4. By developing a theoretical model of the determinants of perceptions, we highlight the role of
trust as a measure of individuals’ predisposition towards government and service providers.
This model, in which trust factors are hypothesised to "mediate" the effects of people's
socioeconomic and demographic factors on their perception of service quality, is based on
discussion of the relevant literature as well as intensive descriptive data analysis. Using the
DFID survey data, we develop two latent trust variables to serve as these “mediators”.
5. Results from our regression analyses testing this model indicate that it is well supported by
the data; namely, as hypothesised, gender, education and geographic inequalities measured by
the rural-urban dynamic influence perceptions through our trust mediator. These results are
found across all three sectors.
6. Given the importance of actual service provision in our model, we conduct regression
analyses incorporating provision data, which is only available at the state level. Results of the
state level regressions reveal more nuanced findings across the three sectors. For instance,
higher education spending is negatively associated with perceptions of school quality, holding
all other variables constant, whereas we find a positive association between perceptions of
public hospitals and higher treatment of diseases. These results suggest that better outcomes
(by way of service provision), as opposed to access, are more likely to increase perceptions of
quality. Horizontal and vertical inequalities found to be significant at the state level include
geographical inequality, now measured by the centre-periphery dynamic, and education.
7. Our results motivate us to propose two new indicators that will better measure and address
inequalities in perceptions of public service provision: (1) the average perception of service
quality for specific groups of interest, primarily those identified as having unequal access; (2)
the ratio of the average perceptions of service quality for the group identified as having unequal
access and its relevant counterpart. DFID would aim to increase the absolute value of indicator
(1) to improve perceptions of provision, while also observing indicator (2) over time, with
convergence to one indicating a reduction in the inequality. These would act as complementary
indicators within DFID’s Operational Plan.