Timor-Leste’s most recent census (October
2010) puts the country’s population at just
over one million: 1,066,582.1
The census reveals
that Timor’s population has been growing
at an annual rate of 2.41% since 2004, the
highest rate of any Southeast Asian or Pacific
island state. Thus, despite the ravages and
disruptions of foreign occupation, warfare and
forced migration, the country’s population has
doubled since 1980 and is expected to double
again in less than thirty years.
Population growth and its consequences will
be a major factor in Timor-Leste’s future. If the
country is to achieve sustainable economic
development and minimise dependence on
food imports, the local agricultural industry
will need to cater for a progressively more
highly populated and more urban society.
The government has rightfully identified
food security—regular physical and
economic access to a basic food supply—as
a key priority in its indicative Strategic
Development Plan (2011–2030). As part of
its efforts to address the country’s many
food security challenges, Timor-Leste will
need to understand how population growth,
distribution and composition will affect the
supply and demand for agricultural products,
particularly staple foods.
Drawing upon information from the 2010
census and highlighting priority areas for
future research and planning would be a
good starting point. The census shows that
most of Timor’s population (70%) still resides
in rural areas, with marked differences in
population density between districts. For
example, the population density of the largely
rural district of Ermera (149 people per square
kilometre) is six times that of Manatuto
(24.3 people per square kilometre). The census also shows that Timor-Leste’s population is
heavily concentrated in the western half of
the country. Despite the fact that the four
districts of Manatuto, Baucau, Viqueque and
Lautem to the east comprise nearly half the
land area of Timor-Leste (47%), those districts
have only about a quarter of the country’s
total population (27%).2
Recent population figures also reveal the
increasing concentration of growth in the
capital city, Dili, and its surrounding areas.
Whereas the country’s population has been
growing at an average rate of 2.4% per year,
Dili’s has been growing twice as fast at 4.8%.
As a consequence, just under 22% of the
population now resides in the capital (with
some spill-over to the neighbouring areas of
Aileu, Liquica and Manatuto).
To better understand the consequences
of population growth and distribution for
Timor’s agricultural potential, the government
could look at a variety of factors, including the
capacity of different districts to absorb and
provide for a growing number of inhabitants;
the quality of local distribution networks and
mechanisms for appropriate food allocations;
and the impact of urbanisation and internal
migration on the agricultural industry. In
the absence of improved data collection
and analysis methods, significant policy
reforms and technological change, such as
population-related trends have the potential
to affect food security adversely in the
coming decades.