This study has attempted to identify and examine possible demographic components in the
civil conflict that Timor-Leste is currently experiencing. Using a theoretical framework that
proposes that the position of societies in the process of demographic transition is related to
vulnerability to conflict, three socio-demographic risk factors were analyzed:
1. A high proportion of teenagers and young adults in the population combined with little
opportunities of employment other than in the predominant subsistence sector of the
economy.
2. High in-migration rates to Dili, the capital city, and the consequent rapid urbanization
that the city is experiencing.
3. The surfacing of a strong regional component in the conflict (eastern and western parts of
the county) as a result of the presence in Dili of migrants of different origin.
These three factors were analyzed with data from the 2004 Census, which is, at present, the
most complete and reliable source of demographic data.
The paper analyzes how the previously mentioned three demographic characteristics and
processes have been important stress factors on the present conflict. It also explores how
they have shaped some of the main characteristics of the conflict, in particular, the facts
that the unrest is centered mainly in the capital city and that it has adopted the form of
violent street gang fights representing eastern in-migrants on one side and westerners and
Dili natives on the other.
The general conclusion of this study is that demographic issues do matter in the civil
conflict that Timor-Leste is suffering and demographic data and analyses may make
substantial contributions to policies, measures and strategies directed to a return the country
to normality