Myanmar: Long-Term Scenarios for Sustained Macroeconomic Growth

Type Working Paper - Asian Development Bank
Title Myanmar: Long-Term Scenarios for Sustained Macroeconomic Growth
Author(s)
Volume 429
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2015
URL https://openaccess.adb.org/bitstream/handle/11540/4029/EWP_429_MYA LT​Scenario_23Apr_WEB.pdf?sequence=1
Abstract
We use a dynamic forecasting model to evaluate a wide array of opportunities for sustained economic
growth in Myanmar. Our simulation results suggest that the government of Myanmar can advance
potential growth drivers, by maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to
private investment, promoting human capital development and public investment, facilitating domestic
and international private agencies for market development, and strengthening regional economic
integration. The government needs a balanced approach to sector interests to promote inclusive and
equitable growth. Increasing agricultural productivity, for example, will not only benefit the country’s rural
poor majority, but it will also release labor resources to facilitate industrial and service sector
development. Conversely, industrial and urban development will facilitate agrifood supply chains,
improving market access and real incomes in rural areas. Public commitments to improving
infrastructure, education, and public health will also be essential to realizing Myanmar’s vast economic
potential.

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