The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total
fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received
only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran
Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts’ age-specific fertility model,
this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility
in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates
that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of
the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting
effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and
was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive
behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2·0 children per
woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births
among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the
middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are
discussed.