Abstract |
The population of Peninsular Malaysia increased by 24.4% in the intercensal period 1970-1980. The growth rate was quite uneven among the different ethnic groups, with the Malays growing the most by far (30.5%), followed by the Indians (19.3%) and the Chinese (17.6%). The differential intercensal growth by ethnic group was due to fertility in part, and hence natural increase. The Malays as compared to the nonMalays had the highest crude birth rate and the highest rate of natural increase throughout the decade. For the Malays only, the annual rate of overall growth is higher than the rate of natural increase. For all nonMalays as well as for Peninsular Malaysia as a whole, the rate of overall growth is by contrast lower than the rate of natural increase. This suggests that the Malays gained population due to in-migration and the nonMalays as well as Peninsular Malaysia as a whole lost population due to out-migration. The volume of population gain or loss due to migration during the decade can be estimated by the application of 2 commonly used methods, the residual method and the intercensal cohort-component method. According to calculations obtained from the former method, the overall growth of population during 1970-1980, was less than what would have been the case had the natural increase been the only source of change. The 2nd method of estimating net migration has the advantage over the residual method in that it provides estimates for each 5-year age group as well as for the whole population, thus permitting an analysis of age patterns of migration. The overall results indicated that the total net migration estimate derived from this 2nd method is somewhat smaller (1-13.9%) than the estimate obtained from the simpler residual method. Both the number and the rate of net loss were higher for the males than for the females. Numerically, net loss was highest for the Chinese and lowest for the Malay males. For the Malay males and the Chinese and the Indians of both sexes, the net losses were concentrated in the ages 15-29. Net gains, by contrast, were relatively large among the Malay females in most ages and among the Malay males in ages other than 15-29. In the absence of more direct estimates of in and out migration, these estimates cannot be offered as any more than ball park figures. It had been expected that the 2 methods of estimation would yield much closer estimates than they did. Given the large divergence, particularly for the Malays, the possibility must be entertained that some of the component parameters may be unreliable. Given these and other methodological and data problems, the only recourse is to report that the best estimate of net loss due to migration in Peninsular Malaysia during 1970-1980, ranges from about 250,000 to 304,000. - See more at: http://www.popline.org/node/407839#sthash.KUT9bowK.dpuf |