The year 2005 is decisive for Kyrgyzstan’s political future. Parliamentary elections at the
end of February and, even more so, presidential elections in October provide an opportunity
for the first democratic change of power in Central Asia, because the incumbent President,
Askar Akaev, has repeatedly stated that he will abide by the constitution and step down. If
he were to stay, thereby breaking his promises, and in case of electoral fraud, there is a
possibility for political turmoil in the country, which could spill over into other dimensions
than the political. The country’s ethnic diversity and its history of interethnic conflict pose a
certain risk for ethnically motivated violence, if ethnicity were to be exploited irresponsibly
by political actors for their needs. However, as the successful privatization of agricultural
land proves, potential dangers can be eliminated if there is enough political will and, if
necessary, pressure from the outside.