Type | Working Paper |
Title | Adjusting fertility to weather shocks. What implications for food security? |
Author(s) | |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2015 |
URL | http://www.lse.ac.uk/economics/currentStudents/researchStudents/EDPjamboree/Bertelli_PSE_EDPpaper.pdf |
Abstract | Despite the worldwide decrease of fertility rates, Sub-Saharan Africa is still an exception, showing an almost non-declining trend in the past 50 years. One of the potential reasons is that in risky environments the chances of children dying are still large. Risk-aversion against child mortality might, hence, push parents to have a hoard of children. By exploiting positive exogenous weather shocks, this paper looks at the adjustment of the reproductive behaviour once the risk of child mortality is relaxed. I show that large households having benefited from abundant rainfall have fewer children dying (the weak ones survive thanks to the shock). As a response, households decrease the number of newborns. However, the overall number of children increases, because parents only partially reduce their fertility. Such partial adjustment has multiple effects in terms of household food security. Dietary changes decrease food quality and, given the increased number of children, adults reduce their own food consumption to buffer the young children. |
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