Abstract |
The Bangladesh economy started tentatively in the 1970s under democratic leadership tasked to rebuild a post-conflict landscape with virtually no resources. The country coasted uncomfortably under autocratic leadership in the 1980s, but sprang back to life with accelerated growth under democratic leadership in the 1990s to present with some interruptions. A democratic government has held out the Vision 2021 of a middle income Bangladesh. This paper looks beyond 2021 and argues that Bangladesh can continue to grow, move to a higher growth trajectory to reach upper middle income status by 2030 and developed country status by 2040-2050. The major drivers are demographic dividend, skill development and productivity growth, financial inclusion with stability, a functioning pluralistic democracy, rising total and agricultural labor and land productivity, growing rice commercialization, rapid growth of exports, improved female literacy and labor force participation, overseas employment and remittances, and structural flexibility (amenable to change). History suggests pluralistic democracy binds all together. Otherwise few factors will shine while others lag behind and the total result less than optimal. Bangladesh is traditional in look but modern, dynamic and open in spirit. The Bangladesh economy and society has gone through substantial structural transformation over past forty years without much tension. It should be able to go through more and achieve what is almost unprecedented in history. There are challenges along the way. Bangladesh has to overcome the so called middle-income trap and jobless growth. Other constraints are land, connectivity, energy, skills, governance, finance, policies and institutions, basic education, regional cooperation, climate change and natural disaster, and the size, structure and functioning of the domestic market. Appropriate policies, strategies and institutions to overcome these constraints would have to be put in place. Policy, strategy and institutional recommendations made in this study are based on current and projected knowledge of what is and what might be. As events unfold, these may have to be reviewed and revised to take account of new realities. What is important is that economic policy making and strategy formulation are carried within the framework of pluralistic democracy to allow constructive debate as a basis for national consensus and effective implementation of programmes for middle income Bangladesh by 2021, upper middle income Bangladesh by 2030 and a developed Bangladesh by 2040-2050. |