Abstract |
This paper investigates the relationship between trade and poverty in Zambia. Zambia is a low income country; in 1998, for instance, more than 70 percent of the population lived in poverty. We set out to explore the effects of world trade liberalization, along the lines of the WTO Doha development round, on household welfare. We look at the impacts of trade reforms on households as consumers and as income earners. Our findings suggest that only small impacts can be expected from the development round. There are two main factors that explain these results. First, the Doha round would only generate a small change in prices so that the gains and losses for producers and consumers are necessarily small too. Second, Zambian households spend a very large fraction of total expenditure on, and derive a large fraction of their income from, home-produced goods, which are unlikely to be affected by trade liberalization. A key finding of our paper is that trade alone is not enough to reduce poverty unless these trading opportunities are complemented with domestic reforms. We exemplify this result with several case studies: one on extension services in agriculture, another on cotton marketing reforms, and a last one on job programs supporting employment opportunities to household heads. We end with an assessment of a much more ambitious scenario that involves full elimination of tariffs and subsidies in agriculture, and a cut in non-tariff barriers; such a scenario would lead to more significant welfare gains for Zambian households. |