A Leslie-type urban-rural migration model, and the situation of Germany and Turkey

Type Journal Article
Title A Leslie-type urban-rural migration model, and the situation of Germany and Turkey
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2012
URL http://hs-stat.com/projects/papers/schmidbauer_roesch_erkol_migration_v2012-08-18.pdf
Abstract
Movements in the age structure of a population are often accompanied by substantial
rural-urban migration. It is therefore compelling to analyze the implications of fertility,
mortality, and migration patterns together. A joint Leslie-type population model of urban
and rural populations is used to project the current population structure into the future,
allowing for migration in both directions. This model permits an analysis of the long-run
(stable) population properties, such as urbanization, under the assumption that current
conditions persist, as well as an analysis of rural and urban populations in isolation, when
migration is computationally eliminated. Applying the model to the female populations
below age 50 of Germany and Turkey, it is found that the actual urbanization is lower
(higher) than long-run urbanization in Germany (Turkey, respectively). The slight long-run
growth of the Turkish population is due to rural-urban migration, while Turkish urban areas
have a below-replacement fertility.

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