Projecting the number and characteristics of households: an application to Thailand.

Type Working Paper
Title Projecting the number and characteristics of households: an application to Thailand.
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 1987
URL http://www.popline.org/node/422117
Abstract
This paper presents projections of the number and demographic characteristics of households in Thailand. 1 objective of this project is to establish procedures for distributing other members of the population among households in a way that is consistent with the underlying mortality and fertility trends that drive demographic change. 4 types of households are distinguished: 1) intact households or those headed by a male with the spouse present, 2) households in which the spouse is not prsent, 3) primary individual households, and 4) one person households. Intact households are by far the most prevalent in Thailand; over 3/4 of all households were this type in 1980. In Thailand, the decline in spouseship is much more closely associated with mortality among husbands than is true of other Asian countries, The likelihood that surviving offspring will be the child of a head calculated by dividing the number of children of head, tabulated from the 1980 census, by the number of surviving offspring. As is typical in many societies, women are much more likely to be the parent of a head than are men. Rate of incidence, employed in projections, are obtained by dividing the observed by the expected number of grandchildren, distinguishing the age of the head of the household. Compared to a rate of population growth between 1960 and 1980 of 2.9%, the rate of population growth is anticipated to be only 1.6% over the remainder of the century and only 1% between 2000 and 2015. The number of households is projected to increase from 8670 thousand households in 1980 to 15,732 thousand households in 2000 and 21,020 thousand households in 2015. Average household size will decline from 5.4 members in 1980 to 4.1 members in 2000 and 3.5 members in 2015. There will be substantial declines in the percentage of households headed by young individuals relative to the percentage of households headed by older persons.

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