Objective Acquired Immune Defi ciency Syndrome (AIDS) has been a leading cause of
morbidity in Thailand for many years. The objective of this study was to model and forecast the
AIDS mortality rate in Thailand using data from death certifi cate reports.
Methods A retrospective analysis of the AIDS mortality rate was conducted. The data were
obtained from the national vital registration database for a 10-year period, from 2000 to 2009,
provided by the Ministry of the Interior, and coded as cause-of-death using ICD-10 by the Ministry
of Public Health. Multivariate linear regression was used for modeling and forecasting age-specifi c
AIDS mortality rates in Thailand.
Results AIDS mortality increased with increasing age in each gender and it also was higher in the
northern and southern provinces. The trend of AIDS mortality remained stable in most age groups,
but decreased in others after 2003. AIDS mortality was highest in males aged 30-39 years.
Conclusion The multivariate linear regression model was suitable for modeling and forcasting
AIDS mortality in Thailand. There is a need for a sustained and long-term AIDS control measures
to deal with a high AIDS burden rate in Thailand.