This report presents the findings and recommendations of an impact assessment of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on primary and secondary schooling in Malawi. As is well known, subSaharan Africa is at the centre of this global epidemic. The region as a whole accounted for 74% of new infections and 78.5% of HIV and AIDS-related deaths in 1999 (UNAIDS/WHO, 2000). The epidemic is concentrated in the so-called 'AIDS belt' stretching from East through Central and Southern Africa where, typically, infection rates are now over 15% of the sexually active population. The bulk of new HIV/AIDS cases occur among young people aged 15-25 and females are disproportionately affected. Although the epidemic (particularly in southern Africa) has not yet peaked, population growth rates are beginning to fall. In Malawi results from the 1997 population census show that overall population growth rate is now only 1.9 per annum compared with a projected growth rate of 3.2% made in the 1987 census. A variety of AIDS-related ‘demand’ and ‘supply’ factors have been identified, which are expected to have highly adverse impacts on the education sector, and schooling in particular. However, even at this late stage of the epidemic, relatively little detailed empirical research has been undertaken in Malawi and elsewhere that systematically investigates the actual and likely impacts of the epidemic on the education sector and, more important still, provides policymakers with a clear set of recommendations about what should be done. The impact of the epidemic must be analysed in each of the four main 'institutional arenas' that collectively, determine the supply and demand for education, namely the household, community, school, and government. At present, only very anecdotal evidence is available about the impact of AIDS with respect to each of these arenas. Many of the predictions that are currently being made about the future impact of the epidemic on the education sector amount, therefore, to little more than unsubstantiated assertions. Nevertheless, it is clear that in Malawi and the other high prevalence countries in the region, the AIDS scourge does threaten to undermine the substantial gains made in expanding educational participation during the past decade and thereby prevent the attainment of national education objectives, including Education For All. As this study will document in detail, teacher morbidity (illness) and mortality have increased and a rapidly growing number of children directly affected by AIDS (in particular orphans) are facing additional difficulties with respect to their education. Given the likely magnitude of the crisis facing the education system in Malawi, it is essential that a comprehensive strategy is developed by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology (MoEST) in order to mitigate as effectively and efficiently as possible the manifold impacts of the epidemic. Without such a strategy, the social equality and other goals of the current Policy and Investment Framework for the
education sector are unlikely to be achieved.