Commodity Price Booms: Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications

Type Working Paper
Title Commodity Price Booms: Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
URL http://www.laef.ucsb.edu/pages/conferences/mbcc14/papers/tavares.pdf
Abstract
Global real food prices increased by about fifty percent between 2003 and 2013. This increase occurred after a two-decade period of food price stability. It is of concern because food prices may affect disproportionately those who are economically vulnerable. Indeed, households in low income countries (LICs) devote half of their budget to food while households in developed nations devote less than 15 percent. It is also true, however, that a larger fraction of households are food producers in LICs and most of the exports of these countries relate to commodities. As a result, the impact of increases in food prices on LICs is not obvious. In this paper, we derive the quantitative implications of observed changes in food prices on macroeconomic aggregates and the distribution of income, and study the implications
of some of the policies currently being debated to mitigate the impact of this shock. Our tool of analysis is a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that includes key features of LICs economies and heterogenous agents subject to idiosyncratic and aggregates shocks. We calibrate the model to Ghana, which has unique household panel data. We find this shock can have strong distributional implications that operate through general equilibrium effects by changing the price of domestic food, and thus the purchasing power of farmers vis-a-vis other agents. Non distortionary food subsidies can partially undo the negative effects of this shock.

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