This research analyzed to what degree and in what form the environment occurs
in local people’s decision to produce charcoal, an illegal forest livelihood activity, in a
protected reserve in Southern Malawi. Charcoal is a cooking fuel for urban dwellers and
an important source of income for rural people living near forests.
Using a three-step process, I created and tested an ethnographic decision tree
model about villagers’ decision to make charcoal. Semi-structured interviews (N=16)
were conducted with heads of households to create a questionnaire of the criteria
relevant to the decision to make charcoal. Then, responses from 27 structured
interviews were used to construct a preliminary ethnographic decision tree model.
Finally, the tree model was tested using an additional 37 household heads. This model
predicted the responses of the test sample with 79% accuracy. A second tree model
was created using the data from all 64 structured interviews. This second described the
data with 92% accuracy. Within both models, considerations involving the environment
do occur but they treat the forest as a site of natural capital rather than as a resource
deserving special protection.