Abstract |
This report examines the nature of the continuing demographic dilemma in Indonesia and the changing efforts on the part of the government to solve the country's variously defined "population problems." Using data from the 1971 Census and the recently released Intercensal Survey figures, it describes the current levels of fertility, mortality, and natural increase and analyzes the impact of current efforts at fertility and mortality control. When Indonesia's National Family Planning Coordinating Board began its work there was no direct empirical estimates available about the country's fertility levels, much less for the provinces. This lack of information facilitated a consensus: according to all evaluations, fertility was high and stable. The crude birthrates for Indonesia and Java were reported in ranges between 40-50 births/1000 population. Processing has broken down since the 1961 Census, and the Social and Economic Surveys conducted in the 1960s were marred by problems of sample size and design. The 1971 Census provided the data needed to make fertility estimates. Table 3 presents the total fertility rates (TFR) based on the 1971 Census and 1976 Intercensal Survey, Stage 2. The TFRs of over 5 in most regions and the nation as a whole imply that parents were having more than twice the number of children needed to replace themselves. When comparison is made with the 1971-75 period, declines of sometimes substantial proportions are found in every region. In Java and Bali, there is no question that increased contraceptive use played a large part in the fertility declines. Additionally, the period was one of rapidly changing marriage patterns. As Table 4 shows, the amount of their reproductive lives women were spending in the married state was decreasing as the age at marriage rose. To some extent, this was offset by declining divorce rates and reduced risks of widowhood, but, on average, women in the mid 1970s spent fewer of their fecund years than did previous generations. Both the use of both birth control and the delay of marriage explain how the fertility decline came about, and modernization and economic development play a part in the explanations of why. Table 6 shows that most of the major geographic regions of Indonesia have been experiencing mortality decline of substantial magnitudes, as indicated by the decreasing proportion of infants who die by their 2nd birthday. The continuing gradual mortality decline and the recent fertility decline are combining to produce a moderation in the rate of natural increase in Indonesia. |