It is widely acknowledged that the impacts of environmental perturbations are partly due to the socio-economic condition of populations at risk. This was evident in the immediate aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami where the poor socio-economic status of fisher communities along the southern and eastern coasts of Sri Lanka presented greater challenges for people to cope with and recover from the event. The purpose of this study is to develop a coping capacity index that takes into account social, economic, and demographic characteristics of populations in three districts in Sri Lanka. The coping capacity index is derived from a regression model, where a causal link is established between poverty, the dependent variable, and a combination of predictor variables associated with income, assets, education, gender, and ethnicity. These variables characterize the root causes of poverty and vulnerability among rural populations that influence the way in which they deal with and recover from changes in the environment.

The findings of the research reveal a wide range of heterogeneity across the study area in how social, economic, and demographic factors influence coping capacities. In some areas, similar variables contribute toward improving coping capacities, and in others they undermine them. Spatial variations in the combination of variables that contribute to coping capacity were observed across districts and District Secretary’s divisions, the subdivision of a district. Temporal differences were also observed in the way in which variables contribute to coping capacity in light of policies and programs implemented between the two time periods analyzed, 2001/2002 and 2006/2007. These temporal and spatial variations highlight the importance of context, and the impact of development policies and reconstruction programs when assessing the vulnerability of people in a given location.