The spilling over of the financial and economic crisis to Serbia proceeded according to a similar
pattern and practically at the same time as in other transition economies. After a strong multiyear
GDP growth of above 5 percent annually from 2005, the first signs of the crisis appeared in
the third quarter of 2008, with a drop in exports and in manufacturing output. In the first half of
2009, GDP decreased in real terms at a rate of approximately -4 percent. Especially affected was
the manufacturing industry, where the output was reduced by a fifth.
Such trends of the GDP are the result of both the reduced demand for Serbian products in the
world and the reduced inflow of foreign capital, which has led to a drop in the domestic demand.
Although the Serbian economy faces many structural problems, it managed to stay on its feet.
This is the result of both the mildness of the recession and Serbia’s low dependence on exports,
as well as of the support of international institutions and certain timely interventions by the
National Bank. According to different estimates GDP growth next year could reach between 1
and 1.5 percent.