Question pretext
I will ask you several questions about the chance or likelihood that certain events are going to happen. In order to visualize the likelihood, I'd like to use a meter stick for you to point to the likelihood. Zero on the meter stick means you are absloutely sure that the event will happen. As the numbers on the meter go up, it means that you think the likelihood that the event happens increases. For example, if you point to ten or twenty, it means you think the event is not likely to happen but it is still possible. If you point to 50, it means that it is just as likely it happen as it is dose not happen (fifty-fifty). If you point to 60 it means the event is slightly more likely to happen than to not happen. There is no right or wrong answer, I just want to know what you think. Let me give you an example. Imagine that we toss a coin. Say, when we asked about the chance that it will come up to heads, you point to 50 on the meter stick. This means that you believe that coin would come up to heads in 50 out of 100 games on average if we play for a long time.